未来生物医药产业发展趋势研究

doi:10.13523/j.cb.2308100

中国生物工程杂志

2024, Vol. 44

Issue (1): 8-18 DOI: 10.13523/j.cb.2308100

生物经济核心产业专题

未来生物医药产业发展趋势研究

裘卉青¹,杨子杰²,郭放³,詹御涛^1,^**(

)

1 西湖大学未来产业研究中心杭州 310024
2 西湖大学生命科学学院杭州 310024
3 西湖大学工学院杭州 310024

Development Trends of the Industries of the Future Biopharmaceuticals

Huiqing QIU¹,Zijie YANG²,Fang GUO³,Yutao ZHAN^1,^**(

)

1 Research Center for Industries of the Future, Westlake University, Hangzhou 310024, China
2 School of Life Sciences, Westlake University, Hangzhou 310024, China
3 School of Engineering, Westlake University, Hangzhou 310024, China

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摘要：

未来产业是新质生产力的主阵地。未来生物医药产业主要是指当前尚处于孕育阶段,由前沿生物医药技术推动,未来在疾病预防、诊断、治疗方面具有广泛应用的产业。然而,未来生物医药产业的发展受技术突破难度和产业发展前景等因素影响,具有巨大的不确定性。为了更加科学、精准、高效地培育我国未来生物医药产业体系,创新性地利用人工智能文本分析技术,对全球主要发达国家知名科研机构近五年的生物医药技术研究项目进行分析,结合专家调研,梳理出当前全球生物医药技术研发重点布局的关键技术,并结合我国国情有针对性地提出政策建议。

关键词： 未来生物医药产业; 新质生产力; 未来产业; 生物医药技术

Abstract:

The industries of the future are the primary arena of the transformative productive forces. The industries of the future biopharmaceuticals primarily refer to the industries that are currently in the incubation stage, driven by cutting-edge biopharmaceutical technologies, and have the potential to have a wide range of applications in disease prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in the future. However, the development of the industries of the future biopharmaceuticals is subject to great uncertainty due to factors such as the difficulty of technological breakthroughs and the prospects for industry development. To cultivate China’s system of the industries of the future biopharmaceuticals in a more scientific, precise, and efficient manner, this study innovatively uses artificial intelligence text analysis technology to analyze biopharmaceutical technology research projects from renowned research institutions in major developed countries over the past five years. Combined with expert research, we have identified the key technologies that are currently the focus of global biopharmaceutical technology research and development. Based on this, and in consideration of China’s national conditions, we propose targeted policy recommendations.

Key words: Industries of the future biopharmaceuticals Transformative productive forces Industries of the future Biopharmaceutical technology

收稿日期: 2023-08-07 出版日期: 2024-02-04

ZTFLH:

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通讯作者: ** 电子信箱:zhanyutao@westlake.edu.cn

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引用本文:

裘卉青, 杨子杰, 郭放, 詹御涛. 未来生物医药产业发展趋势研究[J]. 中国生物工程杂志, 2024, 44(1): 8-18.

Huiqing QIU, Zijie YANG, Fang GUO, Yutao ZHAN. Development Trends of the Industries of the Future Biopharmaceuticals. China Biotechnology, 2024, 44(1): 8-18.

链接本文:

https://manu60.magtech.com.cn/biotech/CN/10.13523/j.cb.2308100 或 https://manu60.magtech.com.cn/biotech/CN/Y2024/V44/I1/8

图1 2016-2022年中国生物医药产业市场规模及增速

图2 2016-2022年中国生物医药研发支出规模及增速

表1 长三角、京津冀、珠三角地区生物医药发展态势

图3 中国生物医药上市公司区域分布数量

序号	关键技术点	项目数	总金额/美元	项目平均金额/美元
1	基因编辑(gene editing)	620	583 499 984	941 129
2	CRISPR-Cas(CRISPR-Cas)	1 478	835 656 289	565 397
3	基因递送(gene delivery)	220	223 349 613	1 015 226
4	表观遗传疗法(epigenetic therapy)	91	59 208 661	650 645
5	免疫检查点抑制剂(immune checkpoint inhibitor)	267	128 979 717	483 070
6	嵌合抗原受体(chimeric antigen receptor)	482	342 213 722	709 987
7	重组抗体(recombinant antibody)	174	175 865 009	1 010 718
8	抗体药物偶联物(antibody drug conjugate)	109	72 481 417	664 967
9	靶向蛋白质降解(targeted protein degradation)	114	55 974 261	491 002
10	小分子抑制剂(small molecule inhibitor)	328	336 834 823	1 026 935
11	药物递送(drug delivery)	607	408 357 578	672 747
12	疫苗设计(vaccine design)	193	451 131 791	2 337 470
13	mRNA疫苗(mRNA vaccine)	47	57 828 014	1 230 383
14	诱导型人工多能干细胞(induced pluripotent stem cell)	491	454 274 103	925 202
15	细胞重编程(cell reprogramming)	114	92 159 499	808 417
16	蛋白质结构(protein structure)	351	299 333 783	852 803
17	蛋白质设计(protein design)	67	69 649 413	1 039 543
18	蛋白质组学(proteomics)	1 400	1 266 466 418	904 619
19	全基因组测序(whole-genome sequencing)	613	678 372 744	1 106 644
20	全转录组测序(whole transcriptome)	315	305 331 014	969 305
21	空间转录组学(spatial transcriptomics)	114	158 813 931	1 393 105
22	单细胞测序(single cell sequencing)	846	617 718 599	730 164
23	高通量测序(high throughput sequencing)	237	165 610 173	698 777
24	代谢组学(metabolomics)	352	422 170 208	1 199 347
25	抗逆转录病毒疗法(anti-retroviral therapy)	46	53 207 055	1 156 675
26	异种移植(xenotransplantation)	49	34 864 963	711 530
27	类器官(organoid)	921	775 986 882	842 548
28	相分离(phase separation)	100	74 377 166	743 772
29	3D打印(3D print)	91	59 793 758	657 074
30	人工智能+生物医药(artificial intelligence + biophamaceuticals)	821	699 078 464	851 496
合计		11 658	9 958 589 052	854 228

表2 全球生物医药研究的30个关键技术点

图4 30个关键技术点资助金额占比分布每个关键技术点矩形的大小和其资助金额成正比

图5 30个关键技术点资助项目数量与总金额呈线性关系

表3 未来生物医药产业关键技术的专家评价指标体系

表4 30个关键技术点的技术性和产业化得分及排名

图6 30个关键技术点综合得分

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