采用数据挖掘技术对湖北省人类狂犬病开展生物信息学研究 <sup>*</sup>

doi:10.13523/j.cb.2010040

中国生物工程杂志

2021, Vol. 41

Issue (2/3): 14-29 DOI: 10.13523/j.cb.2010040

研究报告

采用数据挖掘技术对湖北省人类狂犬病开展生物信息学研究 ^*

张巧珍¹,吴雯婷¹,李紫萱¹,赵心博¹,胡兵²,刘聪²,隋正伟³,刘宏图⁴,章乐^1,^5,^**(

)

1 四川大学计算机学院成都 610065
2 湖北省疾病预防控制中心武汉 430079
3 中国资源卫星应用中心北京 100094
4 中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所北京 102206
5 四川大学华西医院生物医学大数据中心成都 610065

Using Data Mining Technology to Carry Out Bioinformatics Study for Human Rabies in Hubei Province of China

ZHANG Qiao-zhen¹,WU Wen-ting¹,LI Zi-xuan¹,ZHAO Xin-bo¹,HU Bing²,LIU Cong²,SUI Zheng-wei³,LIU Hong-tu⁴,ZHANG Le^1,^5,^**(

)

1 College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
2 Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China
3 China Center for Resources Satellite Data and Application, Beijing 100094, China
4 National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
5 Biomedical Big Data Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China

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摘要：

狂犬病作为一种急性人畜共患疾病,其致死率接近100%。而湖北省作为我国中部狂犬病高发地之一,开展该省狂犬病的流行病学调查不仅有助于了解我国当前面临的狂犬病疫情风险,还能为当地及全国狂犬病防控工作提供有效的参考意见。首先运用描述性分析发现湖北省狂犬病发病人数随时间呈下降趋势,而狂犬病暴露人数则呈上升趋势,且近年来中西部地区狂犬病发病人数较东部地区略为突出,而男性狂犬病发病人数明显多于女性,且中老年群体感染人数多。同时,利用时间序列方法对狂犬病发病与暴露人数的时间序列数据予以分析,证实二者存在季节周期性且具有一定互相关性。研究所构建的风险模型预测未来三年狂犬病发病人数呈稳定趋势,但狂犬病暴露人数却会增加。然后,通过面板回归与差异显著性分析,发现湖北省的狂犬病年发病人数受到人口、GDP、气温和降水的综合影响,且不同海拔和坡度地区的狂犬病发病人数具有显著性差异。最后,讨论了研究存在的局限性以及未来的研究方向。

关键词： 狂犬病; 描述性分析; 时间序列分析; 面板回归分析; 显著性检验

Abstract:

It is well known that the fatality rate of rabies, an acute zoonotic disease, is nearly 100%. As one of the high incidence areas in central China, investigating rabies epidemic in Hubei province not only can understand the current risk of Chinese rabies epidemic, but also can provide effective suggestions for local and national rabies prevention and control. Firstly, descriptive analysis turned out that the rabies cases of Hubei province are decreasing, but the exposed cases of rabies are increasing. Especially, rabies cases in the central and western regions of Hubei are slightly greater than the east, while rabies cases for men is significantly greater than for women. Moreover, the rabies cases of middle-aged and elderly people infected are greater than the young. Secondly, time series analysis for rabies cases and exposed cases to rabies confirmed that both time series have seasonal periodicity and are correlated with each other. The predictive rabies model shows that the rabies cases will be stable, whereas the exposed cases of rabies will increase in the next three years. Thirdly, panel regression showed that the rabies cases in Hubei province are comprehensively affected by population, GDP, air temperature and precipitation, and test results demonstrated statistically significant differences between low/high elevations and slopes. Finally, the limitations and the future research direction were further discussed.

Key words: Rabies Descriptive analysis Time series analysis Panel regression analysis Significance test

收稿日期: 2020-10-29 出版日期: 2021-04-08

ZTFLH:

Q143

基金资助: * 国家科技重大专项资助项目(2018ZX10201002)

通讯作者: 章乐 E-mail: zhangle06@scu.edu.cn

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引用本文:

张巧珍,吴雯婷,李紫萱,赵心博,胡兵,刘聪,隋正伟,刘宏图,章乐. 采用数据挖掘技术对湖北省人类狂犬病开展生物信息学研究 ^*[J]. 中国生物工程杂志, 2021, 41(2/3): 14-29.

ZHANG Qiao-zhen,WU Wen-ting,LI Zi-xuan,ZHAO Xin-bo,HU Bing,LIU Cong,SUI Zheng-wei,LIU Hong-tu,ZHANG Le. Using Data Mining Technology to Carry Out Bioinformatics Study for Human Rabies in Hubei Province of China. China Biotechnology, 2021, 41(2/3): 14-29.

链接本文:

https://manu60.magtech.com.cn/biotech/CN/10.13523/j.cb.2010040 或 https://manu60.magtech.com.cn/biotech/CN/Y2021/V41/I2/3/14

表1 狂犬病相关数据集

表2 狂犬病相关关键术语

图1 工作流程

图2 湖北省狂犬病发病与狂犬病暴露人数的趋势性和季节性

图3 2004~2011年湖北省狂犬病发病人数时空分布

图4 2012~2018年湖北省狂犬病发病人数时空分布

图5 湖北省狂犬病发病人数的人群分布

图6 时间序列分析模块的工作流程

图7 时间序列的谱密度

图8 狂犬病发病和狂犬病暴露人数时间序列的互相关函数图

表3 狂犬病发病与狂犬病暴露人数时间序列模型

图9 狂犬病发病和暴露人数预测

表4 随机效应面板回归模型结果

表5 自变量的VIF

图10 Q-Q图

表6 各比较组方差齐性检验与校正t检验结果

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